Monday, May 01, 2017

Draft Pick Expectations

After mock drafting for 2 months, you get a good feel for the draft and where players usually get picked. Granted some GMs place different values on different players. And in some years, the prospects are deeper at some positions than other positions.

Last year we focused our draft on the offensive side of the ball for two reasons: 1) The draft favored offensive players and 2) Our head coach, a former OC, knew what he needed to get his offense off the ground.

This year, the draft was very deep with NFL caliber players at DE, CB and DT. And we knew that last year.

So how will our picks fair this year?

I like the Harris pick. I don't believe he will start. At least not until he proves he can set an edge against the run. Let's face it, opponents had a field day running against our right end. Hopefully, Hayes will help stop that shit.

 Harris will be a situational player coming in on passing situations and spelling the starters here and there.

I see Harris making an impact late in the half during the opponents 2 minute offense. Take the Seattle game last year. Before the half, they drove 70+ yards taking over with just under 2 minutes and kicked a FG. Then with 4 minutes left in the game, down by 4, they drove 75 yards and scored a TD with 30 seconds left. They also converted two 4th downs on that drive.

We could use Harris there. We gave up 9 points late in the halves. Lost 12-10 and yes Stills should've caught the ball and I still believe Gase should've took the FG on the road early rather than get stuffed on 4-1. But a Harris with fresh legs could get a drive killing sack or at least hurry some throws. That's the value in Harris.

Could we have traded down and still got him? I don't know the trade offers but I thought 22 was a bit early.

Can he replace Wake? That's some big shoes plus Harris works the right side and Wake the left. So he will have to work on that.

Speaking of 4-1s, if Asiata doesn't earn a starting position, he certainly will come in as a 6th lineman and help move the pile. He does have a chance to start but he will have to beat out a couple vets for either spot.

You have to love Asiata's attitude and toughness. I think he was a great value late in the 5th round.

I think Tankersley will play at some point this season. You never have enough good CBs in this league. At the end of last year we had so many injuries, that having quality depth is essential. Plus some teams go 5 wide to take advantage of that lack of depth. Tankersley may help out more than any other pick. He is a tremendous value in the 3rd round.

McMillan is interesting. We need to stop the run. I doubt we are going to a 3-4, so somebody has to play outside with Timmons at ILB. But what if McMillan beats out Timmons. Or Timmons, who is long in the tooth gets banged up. Then of course we need McMillan.

I believe the board dictated the pick and so we got the young run stuffing ILB we lacked and will actually have for at least 4 years at street value. Timmons is a stop gap solution.

Godchaux and Taylor are confusing to me. Neither has a reputation for being proficient against the run, which we needed to address. Now I am not saying they cannot make a tackle against the run. They will have to learn their roles in the defensive scheme but I see the former on the bench for a couple years and Taylor getting some looks on ST.

Ford may earn the 5th WR spot or on the practice squad. But he will be in the building. He had good numbers for two years so he can obviously play.

I think we will be looking for a vet OLB and DT who gets cut later.

Did we miss out on drafting any other players? Yes. That will occur every year.

Did we whiff on any? Time will tell.

Let us keep some perspective in that you shouldn't expect starters when you draft 22nd. You should hope for quality depth with solid players so if someone gets hurt, we don't miss too much of a beat.

As the draft unfolded, I was not happy until we picked Asiata. Then I looked at our 4 picks and was happy.

For me, that's enough.

Phins Up!!!

Carl Leone
Dolfan since 12/25/1971



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20 comments

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Hi Carl. I too am happy with this draft. We needed a young pass rusher that Mr Wake can take under his wing, he knows that and I think he will not see it as a threat to his job as he is a professional and will love a protege. S for McMillan they say that Cunningham had better range, but a hell of a lot more missed tackles. I personally think that McMillan will take on the SAM and with him and Timmons the tackling should be at lease 40-50% better than last year. I think Asiata will also be given every chance to win the left guard job, and I hope he does, we have a great Oline coach

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Asiasta could very well wind up next to James on the right side.

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And Wake is a class act so I expect him to tutor the rookie. Who better to learn from.

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The Big 3 of DOLPHINS management sure has a lot more knowledge and experience than i have so i will hold judgement till next year

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The Big 3 of DOLPHINS management sure has a lot more knowledge and experience than i have so i will hold judgement till next year

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"Let us keep some perspective in that you shouldn't expect starters when you draft 22nd. You should hope for quality depth with solid players so if someone gets hurt, we don't miss too much of a beat."
I have finally read EXACTLY (1 sentence; I should add the entire read was good so it doesn't sound like I agree with only 1 comment) what I have been feeling & thinking. Not a member of anything. I was getting frustrated with negative opinions though. As if we had Cleveland's draft picks & still did what we did! Thanks Carl

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We should be careful penciling in asiata as a day one starter. We go that with every guard we draft and it rarely works out for us.

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Well stated Larry. I agree Tannenbaum, Grier and Gase have their act together.

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Thanks K Nick. When you draft 22, you are a playoff team. You already have a decent roster. Pretty good in fact to finish 10-6.

Can you improve at some spots? Possibly, depending on who falls in the draft to your position of need.

The coaching is so important to building a franchise and having Gase involved in the draft with his ability to decide who stays on the roster gives him so much power.

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You're right Chuck. You cannot jump to conclusions.

These picks are only 21 years old and still growing. They are about to compete against men in their primes. They are facing players with valuable experience who are not in awe of where they are.

10-6. Your vets aren't that bad.

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Good draft. Phins could not risk taking R.Foster after the D.Jordan debacle. McMillan stuffs the run, recall that is and was Phins top priority, period. Pathetic last year giving up like 130 yards per game ? Crazy bad. Whether or not he can play outside, we shall see. Still, Timmons is not a long term solution and injuries happen. Harris will help. Good points by Carl Leone. End of halfs and end of games are killer with offenses speeding up and the D on the field huffin'and puffin'. Young springy legs chasing the QB could lead to bad throws, sacks, etc. Could be the difference in a game a two, the very difference in making the playoffs or not. G- Asiata ? A starter, we shall see. Tankersley a special teams maven year one, a likely replacement for Maxwell in year two. The 2 DT's ? Doubt they even make the team. I like the DT from last year that only played in the preseason and was a beast - Wormsley. Maybe he gets a shot. I agree that an OLB and DT will be picked up once the teams start to make significant cuts. Good draft with 3, maybe 4 players that really help this year. Maybe only Asiata starts, but Harris, McMillan,Tankersley all help, maybe start next year.

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Carl,

I liked this draft. I made it clear in my post that it's my favorite draft we've had in years (not that that's saying much though). But I agree that if I'm pointing out flaws, I have to say the DTs picked confused me. I actually understand Taylor a bit more than Godchaux because any DT taken in rd 6 will come with low expectations and probably only be expected to contribute on ST. As a guy who blocked quite a few kicks in college, Taylor makes sense for that, although I think Miami could have gotten him in rd 7.

As far as Godchaux, I do feel like there were better run-stopping DTs available. For example, I thought Stevie Tu'ikolovatu was a steal in the 7th. Now that's a nasty DT who can stop the run. I would have really liked to have seen Miami pick him. I think he'd fit in really well next to Suh. Instead, he went to TB in the 7th.

But what do you think of Godchaux transitioning to DE? He has decent speed and agility, can rush the passer pretty well, and can chase down screens well. If he lost about 25 lbs I feel like he could make a decent DE.

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They drafted defense. Thank you God. The Fins won 10 games with a very bad D. I'm excited to see what happens.

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I do wish we had taken a safety instead of one of the 2 dts we chose.

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Billy,

I kind of agree. I actually was really hoping they'd grab Jadar Johnson. Great intangibles and a true FS, which is what we need. He ended up going undrafted and I believe the Giants signed him.

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Wormsley is still growing. He was better than everyone elses backups in preseason. He should be better this year. I think Taylor makes the team or practice squad if he blocks a kick or two in camp and preseason

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Godchaux moving to DE is an interesting thought. That could work since he is quick.

I loved Stevie Tu in a couple mocks. He would've been a great addition by trading back instead of Godchaux. Still grab Taylor in 5th and Tu in the 6th.

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Radar Johnson would've been a much better pick than Ford for our needs. Johnson has good ball skills. I grabbed him in mocks. As I mentioned just above, if we trade down the Godchaux pick and then add Tu in 6th and Johnson in 7th.

Shoulda coulda woulda. Jeremy and I need to take over the draft from now on. Grier can give I'm out but Jeremy and I have final say.

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I'm down Carl. Lets do it. I'd do it for only half of what they pay Chris Grier. I'm willing to bet that's still a significant pay raise.

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They may want to pay us more!!