Let's get down to business:
1.) The Miami defensive line will dominate New England's jerry-rigged offensive line. The Patriots will be forced into short passing all day on offense, and this plays into Vance Joseph's scheme. The Dolphins are long and athletic on the outside, quick and nasty on the interior. Jimmy G will be throwing into tight windows. I like when rookies try that.
2.) Miami's safeties and mobile linebackers will feast on New England's semi-athletic receivers. New England exploited bad tackling by the Cardinals. Bad tackling happens a lot in week one under the new CBA (too few contact practices.) The Dolphins strength on defense is at the safety position, and our linebackers cover better than they run stuff. If Suh and company dominate up front, the Patriots will have to run by passing in the 3-5 range. Sure tackling will stall drives, and a few deflected passes may come down in friendly hands.
3.) Miami's offensive line will protect. Against this Defensive line, our retooled O line will have a field day. New England will have to blitz to get pressure. And their linebacking unit is depleted and below average. Tannehill will have plenty of chances to throw over the coverage.
4.) Miami's running game should get going. Arizona averaged 5.4 yards per carry against the Patriots. They got pass happy. Gase will not make this mistake. If Foster has "it", he'll get plenty of chances to show it.
5.) The Patriots are fat and happy- Miami is pissed. Watch Jarvis Landry, Reshad Jones, and Cam Wake's body language Sunday. Contrast it to the playing-with-house-money Pats. When a team finds a win between the couch cushions (terrible snap on special teams) and another is coming off of a week where they know that they left it- multiple times- on the field, there is a possibility for a motivation gap. Miami may end up benefiting from the Patriots' good fortune last week.
In the end, I think Miami will win by a comfortable margin. Remember, I also told you to take Miami plus 10 a month before the Seattle game. Phins up.