Draft day is imminent. I wonder if any of you have ever been guilty of reaching for a hometown player (think the under-utilized Lamar Miller) or passed on a Miami player and then had to watch him eat your lunch week in, week out (Jarvis Landry anyone?) Here is a quick and handy guide to getting value on Dolphins players in this year's draft.
Note: My projections involve ADP- I like many Miami players production-wise, but I don't like how early some are being selected. I like others precisely because they can be had at a bargain.
Ryan Tannehill: (Draft) A lot is being made of Gase's desire for more balance in the offense. This won't necessarily hurt RT's production. Longer, more sustained drives should lead to more plays from scrimmage, a greater number of touchdowns, and fewer picks. I think Tannehill will improve on his 2015 totals in touchdowns (24) and hold steady in yardage (4200). If he does so, he might be a very valuable addition, particularly if Gase likes the idea of allowing Tannehill to run, a luxury Gase never had with Manning and Cutler. A final note: The Dolphins corners will likely take a while to gel (I think Culliver will need to return from injury before the unit fully stabilizes.) Other teams may be throwing a lot on us. If so, the Dolphins T.O.P. stands to benefit due to a shifting run/pass dynamic in our opponents, resulting in a greater number of snaps for Miami on offense. Tannehill is going far too late in most drafts; take him late and prosper. He is a viable low-end starter in 12 team leagues and a very useful insurance policy on an aging starter.
Jarvis Landry: (Draft in PPR, ignore in standard.) Landry is our best player. He will post huge numbers in the PPR format. His value slips in standard leagues, where he will likely be over drafted. This team has a large number of red zone targets (Cameron, Parker, multiple pass-catching backs) which may limit Landry's scoring plays, but he will remain the go-to option in terms of possession.
Devante Parker: (Ignore in all formats.) Parker is going to go very high on draft day- there is so much buzz around him given the insane ability he showed down the stretch last season. The consensus on fantasy sites is that he is a superstar in the making. I love this player's upside and hope the "experts" are right, but I won't be drafting him. He is likely to be picked in 12 team leagues by, at latest, the 5th round, meaning that he needs to be at least a WR2 and will be many team's WR1. I don't like the risk. Parker is a boom or bust player, and I hate boom or bust starters in season-long fantasy. In weekly leagues I'll be playing him regularly when the price is right, but I don't want to count on him week in, week out, until he has a healthy season.
Kenny Stills, Jakeem Grant and Leonte Caroo: (Draft) These players are all worth fliers in my opinion. I love Caroo in dunasty leagues, and I think he'll have gigantic value if anything untoward happens to Parker. If you do draft Parker, consider insuring with Caroo. Stills will produce big games but also pull disappearing acts. With a good matchup, he can be a WR3 with some value and he is going too late in drafts. Grant is just plain fun; draft him and enjoy watching Gase get him involved in the second half of the season.
Jordan Cameron: (Draft) Cameron will have a big year in this offense. Please see my earlier article on this site for a more detailed breakdown. He's and excellent TE2, maybe more, and will go too late in most drafts.
Arian Foster: (Draft) Foster is a boom/bust back. Somehow he is going at #82 overall and the #26 running back in the draft. That means he may be on the board in round 7- that is ludicrous. Take him as your RB 2 and prosper, as your RB 3 and destroy. This is a superstar with a chip on his shoulder, and as I pointed out in an earlier article, Gase leans heavily on experience in the backfield. This player can be the steal of the draft, as long as you properly insure against injury via handcuff.
Jay Ajayi: (Draft only as handcuff.) Ajayi is going far too early. He is being drafted only one round later than Foster. That is a mistake. Let someone else pay this price.
Jakeem Grant: (Draft) Grant gives you pure upside on a late flier. Pick him up late, stash him, and have fun with a talented player, especially in PPR formats.
Thanks to the excellent people at Fantasypros for all ADP ratings.
Home » Unlabelled » Dolphins Fantasy Outlook: Who to draft, who to ignore.
Thursday, August 18, 2016
Posted by Jay Lopez