Friday, March 06, 2015

Suh-ing

This is a look at Suh's stats against the AFC East, every one of which the Lions played last season. They went 2-2, losing to the Pats and Bills.

1 fumble recovery, 1 offsides and 1 facemask.

13 tackles, 11 solo. Against the Dolphins - 4 tackles, 3 solo.

7 tackles were for loss, 3 against the Dolphins.

5 qb hits, 3 of them against the Dolphins.

Suh had 1 sack, yep... against the Dolphins.

It can be argued that the Pats, Bills and Jets had better offensive lines than the Dolphins, who had the NFL's 2nd-best rush yards per attempt offensive line. Yet, the Dolphins couldn't neutralize Suh.

I hadn't intended to go here, but it could also be looked at as Suh against Belichick, Ryan, Schwartz and Coyle.

Then, I checked out Suh against the NFL's 3 best offensive lines in rushing yards/att., negative pass plays allowed and third down conversions. In order, they were New Orleans, Green Bay and Dallas.

Suh faced the Packers twice:

9 tackles, 7 solo, 2 tackles for loss, 2 qb hits, 1 sack, 1 pass defensed, 1 offsides.

and New Orleans:

2 tackles, 1 solo, 1 qb hit, .5 sack, 1 pass defensed, 1 offsides.

Detroit split with the Packers and beat the Saints.















Thursday, March 05, 2015

7 Round Mock Draft For Dolphins' 2015 Picks (6th Edition If Dolphins Sign Suh)

If, and that's a big two letter word, the Dolphins do sign Free Agent DT Ndamukong Suh, I can see the following draft unfolding with their 2015 picks.

The Dolphins wound up tied with the 49ers at 8-8 but since the 49ers' opponents' winning percentage was higher than the Dolphins' opponents' winning percentage, we will pick 14th in all the odd rounds and the 49ers will pick 14th in all the even rounds in this years NFL Draft.  We also get the 49ers' 7th Round pick for the Jonathan Martin fiasco.

I am utilizing a Computer App to make the selections for the 31 other teams in the draft.  Unfortunately, I do not have the time to list all the available players when we pick nor all the picks in this draft.

The 5th Edition was posted on February 20th and since the NFL Combine many players' values have either risen or fallen due to their performance at the Combine.  This draft takes into consideration those values and ratings of players at each position.  As in the previous two drafts, I have taken
a couple trades in order to pick up 3 additional picks in the second day of the draft.

First Round Pick # 14: Still on the board were OT Andreas Peat, ILB Benardrick McKinney, WR Doriel Green-Beckham, DT Eddie Goldman, SS Landon Collins, OLB Vic Beasley, CB Trae Waynes, and WR Devante Parker. The KC Chiefs, one of 3 potential trade partners, offered me their 1st #18, 2nd #17 and 3rd #16 to move up.  I accepted the trade and KC picked Andreas Peat.

First Round Pick # 18 (From KC): Still on the board were McKinney, Green-Beckham, Goldman, Beasley and Collins.  Any of which, excluding Goldman, could help us.  I know starring at the 6th overall rated player in OLB Vic Beasley seems like an easy decision.  However, the more I look at Beasley, the more I see Dion Jordan.  A super quick athletic player with no true position in our scheme. If we ran a 3-4 Defense then I could see adding Beasley opposite Jordan at OLB. But since we don't, and with some very good WRs still available, I accepted another trade offer from the Eagles, who gave us their 1st #20 and 2nd #20.

First Round Pick #20 (From Phila,): Collins was picked at 19. So I could still take either Beasley, Green-Beckham or McKinney, who all could help fill needs. However, there was one guy rated just above this pick at 22.  He would fill a need and is a very safe pick as well. So welcome the WR out of Arizona State, Jaelen Strong.  Strong is aptly named as he is a physical player with the strength to back it up and will be not only a good possession style receiver but because of his leaping ability a tremendous Red Zone target at 6-2, 217 lbs. At the Combine, he ran the 40 in 4.44 and posted a vertical leap of 42 Inches (that's 3.5 feet straight up, standing still).  He also shows a dedicated work ethic and reminds many of Marques Colston. He will be a matchup nightmare with his size and physicality.

Second Round # 15: Since we would have Suh, tying up two blockers inside and still reeking havoc, I decided to grab a tackling machine to play ILB. With the 47th pick, welcome the 37th Rated Player from UCLA, Eric Kendricks.  At 6-0, 232 lbs, Kendrick pacts a wallop and even though he missed two games he still made 106 tackles.  He has the speed and instincts to remind many of Zach Thomas playing behind Tim Bowens.

Second Round # 17 (from KC): What luck! The 29th Rated Player that also fills a need in playing opposite Brent Grimes at CB.  Happily, I selected Kevin Johnson out of Wake Forest.  At 6-0, 188 lbs, Johnson possesses natural NFL coverage skills.  He can play man or zone and even though he won't blow you away with his open field tackling skills, not that many guys get open against him anyway.  Johnson started 41 games without injury and was a 4 year All Conference Selection.

Second Round #20 (from Phila.): I was a little disappointed when Tre' Jackson, OG from Florida State was picked right in front of us here, I was going to reach a bit for him to solidify the OL.  But I was happy to grab OT Ty Sambrailo from Colorado State. Of the remaining top rated OTs on the board, he had the quickest feet.  At 6-6, 311 lbs, he does need some strength building and will probably need a good year in a NFL Strength and Conditioning Program but he will indeed be a NFL Caliber LT. And he could start right away in a pinch for Brandon Albert.  He started all 4 years in college and even played some RT and both Guard spots too. He plays hard from the snap to the whistle and throws his body around as if it is his last play.  Isn't that what we want from all our players?

Third Round # 14: Time to compliment Lamar Miller at RB.  He brings some lightning so lets find a little thunder.  With the 78th Pick, I selected the 66th Rated Player in RB out of, you heard this right, Northern Iowa, David Johnson. At 6-1, 224 lbs, Johnson looks like a Linebacker with his stout and muscular build.  And he runs hard inside and should be able to pick up those tough short yardage situations we have been lacking success in. Not only does he run hard, but Johnson also catches the ball very well so he can be a threat out of the backfield torching linebackers trying to stay with his 4.5 speed.

Third Round # 16 (from KC): Back to the defense and our secondary.  I keep finding some gems in this draft, as the 75th Rated Player is still available with the 80th pick.  That's not so much the deal as it is to fill a need in selecting FS Derron Smith from Fresno State. He is the 2nd Rated Player at FS, so their isn't a whole lot of quality depth at this position in this draft. Smith has great ball skills and good quickness to break on the ball.  At 5-10, 200 lbs, he makes up for his diminutive size with tremendous leaping ability. He will need to get into the weight room to get better at shedding blockers but he can certainly play in the NFL and add depth if not earn a starting position.

Fourth Round # 15: You might be wondering "What the hell was he thinking?" when you read this.  With the 111th pick, I selected straight out of Hobart and William Smith College, OG Ali Marpet.
Look he is the 80th Rated Player even though you probably never heard of his school. At 6-4, 307 lbs, Marpet is also the 4th Rated OG in this year's draft as he runs the 40 in 4.98 seconds and leaps 30.5 inches. All I need to say is Marpet eats glass for a living and gets his money's worth every snap.  He will remind many of a poor man's Zach Martin and he also will earn his living at the OG position despite playing tackle.  And BTW, he handled many of the DL he faced at the Senior Bowl.    

Fifth Round # 14: If I seem to be zig-zagging, maybe I am.  Because its back to the defense with the 142nd pick, I grabbed the 116th Rated Player in Texas OLB Jordan Hicks. At 6-1,236 lbs, he may not possess all the intangibles to start right away in the NFL, but making 138 tackles gets noticed.  His Sophomore and Junior seasons were cut short by injury so he really only played in 19 games however he is a very sure open field tackler and where he can earn a living is on special teams.

Sixth Round # 15: Ok. This is a reach. Not a big one this late in the game but we may need to look at the QB position. With the 175th pick, welcome the 186th Rated Player, direct from Oregon State, QB Sean Mannion!  Look at the numbers: 6-6, 229 lbs, Pac 12 Record 4,662 Yards and a School Record 37 TDs.  He has the arm strength to make all the NFL throws including touch on the long ball.  He played in a Pro-Style Offense. So what gives?? He feels the pressure and doesn't have the foot speed to move out of it but backs up away from it instead of stepping up and taking the hit while delivering the ball with some zip on it.  If he can be coached out of that, he could become another AFC East QB taken in the 6th Round. If only!

Seventh Round # 14: Wow, I am staying with the Offense. At Pick # 206, lets add some depth at TE with the 190th Rated Player, out of South Alabama, Wes Saxton. At 6-3, 248 lbs, he has the quickness to be a legit matchup nightmare.  He runs the 40 in 4.65 and leaps 36 inches. But to start in NFL, he needs to add more bulk. He is very athletic, that's clear.  And that may keep him on the practice squad.

Seventh Round # 15 (from 49ers): Back to the Defense and the Linebacker Corps.  I was thinking about drafting DT Tyeler Davison, who is Rated # 247 with this 207th Pick to come in and compete at DT but the 164 Rated Player was still on the board.  With our last pick of the 2015 Draft, welcome ILB Bryce Hager. He is not a big hitter, he does not possess tremendous strength nor speed nor size at 6-1, 234 lbs for a ILB. So why the hell am I picking him? He is hyper active and smart! His father played nine years in the NFL. He made 114 Tackles, 76 solo, 12 for a loss, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles and 1 INT.  He is always around the ball.  You look at him and wonder "How the hell is this guy on the field?" Well, try to get him off it.  But will he make the team?

So that's my 6th Edition assuming we sign Ndamukong Suh.  If so, we don't have to worry about the DT position and look how things opened up for us.  Signing him may cost us some money but because of the depth at some positions of need we can add a wealth of early draft picks instead of saving cap space.

Phins Up!!!

Carl Leone
Dolfan since 12/25/1971
    

Did Patriots Release Vince Wolfork Just To Pursuit Ndamukong Suh?

By releasing Nose Tackle Vince Wilfork, the Patriots just got under the $142,000,000 Salary Cap.  So there is still plenty of maneuvering needed if they want to be players for DT Ndamukong Suh.

Suh will command upwards of $18-20 Million per year against any teams' Salary Cap. For the Pats to get in play they will have to find another $20 Million in Cap Space and that takes a lot of restructuring contracts or cutting some expensive vets.

Plus they still need to save about $6 Million for their 2015 Draft Class contracts.

What I see is the Patriots positioning themselves to instead go after a rookie to replace Wilfork.

I can see them looking to draft with their 32nd pick either Jordan Phillips of Oklahoma or Eddie Goldman of Florida State.

Both are 330 lbs can play inside in the Pats 3-4 scheme.

That's if both are still available at 31 so that they will get one or the other.

If one of them goes earlier than 31, the Pats will have to rethink their positioning and possibly have to trade up to grab the remainder of the two.

One other player they may covet is 6-5, 320 lbs DT Carl Davis out of Iowa. He possesses an excellent blend of size and athleticism.  As the 48th rated player in this year's draft class, the Pats may feel he will be available at 32 anyway.

The Pats may even be able to trade back a little and still get him.    

Or will the Pats uncharacteristically make a big splash and way move up in the draft in order to snag the 340 lbs DT out of Washington, Danny Shelton?

No matter their plan, I just don't see the Pats being able to sign Suh, but by at least having him in for visit, they could make it more expensive for whomever does sign him.

And that may be part of their plan as well.

Phins Up!!

Carl Leone
Dolfan since 12/25/1971