Thursday, September 10, 2015

538 football analysis


Ouch. 


"When you think of an awful team in the AFC East, you probably think of the Buffalo Bills or the New York Jets. But don't forget about the Dolphins. "
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2 comments

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What do they know???

Hopefully not a lot.

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@Carl
Don't think 538 knows much about football.

538 was is a political statistics website. The cite has correctly predicted almost all national elections since 2008. For some reason, ESPN bought them. Apparently, ESPN thinks politics are sports. Too bad sports analytics require some knowledge of the sport being analyzed.

To some degree the article is right, the Dolphins have been bad since Wan's last year. But none of that is analytics, its just giving an opinion about what the team will do this year based on the last 10. This article is nonsense. Past performance does not dictate future results - it only indicates the shortcomings of the past. There is a lot of evidence to indicate that those shortcomings have this year been addressed, and these 538 bozos don't even speak to that.

For a better prediction, try one of the publications that have actual done well applying analytics to football predictions. For instance, Football Outsiders which has this team as a Super Bowl sleeper pick.