Monday, November 24, 2014

Can 10-6 Get Us Into The Playoffs?

After yesterday's tough loss to Denver, I am reminded of the immortal words of the Sapronos' characters "Fugget about it."

But not in regards to our playoff chances.

No. In regards to that game because there is plenty of season left.

Can we get in at 10-6?

Presently, we are ranked 10th in the AFC so can we leap frog the top dogs ahead of us?

Yes, with the right wins.

Lets say the Pats win the East, Colts win the South and that Denver/KC wins the West.

Now both the Denver/KC division winner and possible wild card winner have the tie breaker on us so we need the 6th seed to realistically get in.

That means we have to get by the 7-3-1 Bengals, at 7-4 the Steelers, Chargers and Browns plus the  6-4 Ravens.

The AFC North winner is probably not going to be determined from all 4 teams in the hunt until the last weekend of the season.

Lets face it, the AFC North played an easy schedule this year. They got to play the AFC and NFC South divisions, who currently out of 8 teams, only have the Colts with a winning record.

Those two divisions are a combined 28-58.

We, on the other hand in the AFC East, have to play the AFC West and NFC North divisions with a combined record of 47-41.

That's a big swing for half your schedule.

We still have @Jets, Baltimore, @Pats, Minnesota and Jets on our horizon.

Lets say we lose to the Pats and sweep the rest. Which is doable.

We would finish at 10-6 and have 4 AFC losses with the head to head tie breaker with San Diego and Baltimore.

But look at the remaining schedules for those in the hunt mentioned above plus the Bills and Texans (AFC LOSSES):

Broncos 8-3 (1): @Chiefs, Bills, @Chargers, @Bengals, Raiders

Chiefs 7-4 (3): Broncos, @Cardinals, Raiders, @Steelers, Chargers

Chargers 7-4 (3): @Ravens, Pats, Broncos, @49ers, @Chiefs

Steelers 7-4 (3): Saints, @Bengals, @Falcons, Chiefs, Bengals

Bengals 7-3-1 (3): @Bucs, Steelers, @Browns, Broncos, @Steelers

Browns 7-4 (4): @Bills, Colts, Bengals, @Panthers, @Ravens

Ravens 6-4  (4): @Saints Tonight, Chargers, @Miami, Jags, @Texans, Browns

Bills 5-5 (5): Jets Tonight, Browns, @Broncos, Packers, @Raiders, @Pats

Texans 5-6 (3): Titans, @Jags, @Colts, Ravens, Jags

See what I see?

Its the Texans who worry me! Not any of the teams ahead of us who have to play each other at least 3 times.

To beat out the Texans in this scenario of us going 10-6 with 4 AFC losses, we would need the Texans to lose one more game probably against the Colts who are only 2 games ahead of them right now.

If the Texans run the table, they could very easily be the 6th seed.

The Texans!

Didn't see that coming.  But when you look at the remaining schedules of everyone in the AFC hunt we don't look so bad in comparison.

We need to get healthy again and beat the damn Jets Monday night and then go from there.

We are still certainly in the hunt for the 6th seed and who knows, maybe beyond.

Phins Up!!!

Carl Leone
Dolfan since 12/25/1971
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24 comments

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My concern is that Ross stays the course, regardless of record. OK, let's say a repeat of last year, 8-8. Will the zombies attack Ross and he throws a couple of coaches at them? I hope not! Continuity is important right now because this team is on the verge of greatness. Honestly, what are this team's chances as a wildcard against the elite teams they will face on the road? Stay the course, regardless of record, add more talent through the draft and resign the many key players who will need new contracts. Ross, avoid the impulse of the quick fix and trust your captains.

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ps: Captains. Dan Marino. What will his advice to Ross be?

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I dont see any major changes with the coaching staff. Unless we go far in the playoffs and Lazor is offered a college head coaching position.

Even if we finish 6-10, which I highly doubt, Philbin will return for at least one year.

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this year every1 said it playoffs or failure .every1 said if quesy doesnt make playoffs hes gone..why would that change?philbin is horrible&his coaching cost us @least 2games this year&countless others last 2years

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Ross will stay the course.

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Don't think 10-6 gets the Phins a playoff berth. Wish they could make it to that record but I don't see it

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@T Bone
I really am starting to get tired of the "Philbin LOST US 2 GAMES!!!"
I'm assuming 1 of those games was the Green Bay game. I admit, when we first lost and for a couple days I blamed Philbin. I don't see it that way now because I have tried to leave out a lot of my emotions during a game and look at it as 2 teams, playing against each other, that's it.
What about the 3 turnover's we had against GB? Did that matter? How about the time of possession: GB 37 minutes, Miami 22 minutes? They passed for more yards, & they ran for more yards. They had 27 first downs, we had 19. They ran 24 more plays on offense than we did. QB rating: Rogers=100, Tannehill=83. GB had 8 3rd down conversions & a 4th downer. Miami had 4 3rd down conversions, & failed on their only 4th down attempt.
Green Bay pretty much controlled the game. I think we had a chance to steal it when Rogers fumbled and their lineman fell on it before we could get to it. They did beat us though. It's easy to put the blame on the coach and his TO calling. Blaming is so much easier than accepting responsibility for something. Trust me on this, I know a good deal about blaming others for my problems. It's hard to look in the mirror and say "I am looking at the reason for why my life is the way it is!" I understand these are different types of responsibility. That being said, there are many coaches and 53 players in a win or a lose on Sunday. The team lost the game, not Joe Philbin.
Next game is against the Jets. Why don't you forget about the games from 2 years ago, plus the loses this year, and think about winning the ONLY game we have any control over right now! One week from tonight in MetLife Stadium against the NY Jets!!

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@Lawrence
Pressure does odd things to people; teams! I do not think it will be so simple. This is a time when all the teams you think are gonna win because of records, start tripping over their feet. A lot of time left and I'll eat.....Christmas Dinner at your place if Miami ends up 10-6 and does not get a WC spot!!

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Good piece Carl!!

Phins Up!!!

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This is not a Rhetorical question I would like a legitimate answer.
What is the point of just making it to the playoffs? If you have already written the Dolphins off as loosing to the Pats and they have already lost to some of the other lead AFC teams what's the point? Is it pride to say My team just barely made it into a wild card spot? If that were the case you could pridefully say that the Dolphins have almost won against Green bay, Detroit, and Denver. Is the hope that we just barely make it into the playoffs and then the magical Super Bowl Fairy bounces the balls our way the whole time? I like the direction this team is heading but last night was my tipping point I don't think they are Super Bowl contenders YET.

OFF TOPIC!! speaking of magical fairies how lucky were we that all of those fumbles bounced out of bounds yesterday? We were getting awfully lucky early in the game.

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@ mattbatt:

Getting into the playoffs means that theses Phins are part of only 37.5 percent of teams who make it to the tournament. It means that they are better than just less than half the league. Something that has evaded them more often than not lately.

And yes, the "magical super bowl fairy" has made an appearance a few times throughout history. Just ask the 2007 NY Giants who went 10-6 and won the super bowl from the wild card. Or how about the 2005 Steelers who went 11-5 and also won the Super Bowl? Or maybe the 2010 Packers who were also 10-6 and won the super bowl? That sneaky fairy must have playoff tickets every year...

That is why these late game debacles by players, coaches, the trainer, ball boy, equipment manager, or whoever you wanna blame it on need to stop! Once you get in, it's anybody's championship to win. But with the Dolphins obviously not knowing how to close out games, getting in the tournament seems less and less likely by the week.


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In order to win the SB, you have to make the playoffs first. Once there, anything can happen. Ask the Ravens, Giants, Steelers who won SBs from the six hole.
Get hot going in and get lucky once there.
Plus having playoff experience will help the next year.
And yes Matt, we were lucky those balls fumbled by Gibson went out of bounds. Plus the FG doinked the upright. We got quite a few breaks.

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I am from colorado been a dolphins fan my whole 29 years my heart and soul loves this team was at the game last night. I am sick and tired of all you philbin and tannehill haters regardless how the season ends this is the best shape this team has been in years what would you prefer to go back to cam cameron and daunte culpepper calm down philbin has been okay and tanny is improveing RG3 Cam Newton for example this is joe's first head coaching job it takes time were on our way up PHINS For LIFE. All u haters go back back to New York

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I agree Brian. We need all the players and coaches we have. We just need a few more key players and more experience. Getting rid of anyone will just set us back another 3 years. It would be stupid. But that's why all the haters aren't NFL GMs.

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@ Jeremyandjessica

so if haters arent NFL GM's do the lovers get to be? Just curious...

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Haha Brian.

Give 'em hell!

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Thank God!

But some are QB coaches.

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@ Lawrence haha no. I know I wouldn't be good at it. But I'm just saying that anyone who thinks you should hit the reset button every time you don't make the playoffs in 3 years should not be a GM.


As far as playoffs. I think 10-6 can get us in. I won't be surprised if KC has a melt-down in the next 5 games and ends up 9-7. Same with the Browns and Ravens. We HAVE to go 10-6 though and we HAVE to beat the Ravens. If we don't do both of those things I think we're out.

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Lawrence I agree on all you said above

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@ Carl:

Thank you for the agreement.

It may seem as if im Dolphins hating but i'm really not. Nobody wants to see this team succeed for than me. BUT....

These late game melt downs are killing their chances of making the playoffs. I understand that they will not win all close games, but to lose them all? It just seems so unacceptable to me. If they won just 1 of those close games, then I could accept the other 2 losses a lot better but they havent even pulled out 1!!

It seems that the offense folds when needed to get a first down or the defense folds when they need a stop on 3rd and long. It is extremely frustrating.

This team should be 8-3 and in control of their own destiny but unfortunately even if they get to 10-6, they are going to need A LOT of help from the Ravens, Steelers, Browns and possibly 1 or 2 more teams. It should never have been that way. Now their playoff hopes hinge on them winning at least 4 of the last 5 AND the cards falling exactly where they need to fall in order to get in.

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Lawrence I agree that they need to win some of the close ones. Detroit was particularly disheartening. I believe these close losses are a result of inexperience in our coaching staff. Luckily, time will fix that. I really think this could be a SB contender in the next couple of years. MAYBE even next year...

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Gentlemen, I wrote it before and so I will write it again:
We are running the table and beating the Packers in the SB.

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It is a relief to know that everyone feels the same way/has the same opinion about which teams make the playoffs(considering the contributors of THIS blog, I'm speaking of the AFC). For me that is part of the enjoyment. The banter; predictions; ALL of it! I feel a part of something, even though I know each of you as well as my 18 year old daughter wants me to know where she is going, who with, and what they will do/ingest/so on & so forth.
The other enjoyment(most of it; we all have percentages of liked activities that come along during the NFL season; this is somewhat MY answer/reasoning to Mattbatt's rhetorical inquiry about the mere qualification to the playoffs as a Wild Card.)is that the Dolphins are still in the hunt Thanksgiving week when I see a good deal of my family; also NFL fans. Yet their loyalties or confusion over who to cheer for has always troubled me?
It's so obvious in my mind: born in 1966 in Indianapolis, Indiana. I cheer for the Miami Dolphins! I mean really, does the fact that I was born in Indy come to only ONE conclusion? No NFL team; by the time I was able to understand small things=sure, Viet Nam sounded like a swell place to send our military; civil rights seemed cool; I completely understood ALL the ramifications set forth by the useless & evil assassination of MLK Jr.; at age 3 I packed a suitcase for my journey to upstate New York & the Woodstock festival, but my mother & father were able to overpower me physically and locked me in the house?? And of course the 1973 SB that capped off an undefeated regular season by the Miami Dolphins! There are many other "REAL" connections I use to explain my devotion, but I can already tell I am starting to ramble, so I'll wrap up with my points.
Yes, pride can be a reason to make it as a Wild Card. I don't know about you Matt, but when the NFL season ends with the SB, I ALWAYS have a feeling......kind of empty maybe? Sure, there is work, family, home, bills; all the mundane tasks & activities that make life worth living. But the NFL season does something to people. You watch the games on TV?? If you do have you ever seen what some folks will do to show their loyalty to their team? The make-up & costumes. The signs. It is important to people, & even more so when they make the playoffs! One more week(hopefully more)of putting off the routine of life.
I have more but I don't want to.....I don't know, I enjoy reading others and I don't want to fill up a bunch of space with all of my thoughts which are 100% correct and should be taken as gospel....or maybe one of those places where everyone wears pajamas? Of course I sleep more comfortably without pajamas, so a small room maybe is where I will be kept?? As long as it has a TV or radio for the SEASON, I'm good to go!! not really.

Phins Up!!!

ps If that happens Carl, I am going. HANDS DOWN!! I know I won't be alone either. My Packer-Backer college roommate for 3 years has already been to 2, alone. I know he would love the company if you're in!?!?!? Wouldn't sit together more than likely, but always safety in #'s! PHOENIX, AZ here we come!!!

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KNick understands that one more week of having something to play for is so much better than just being a bystander.

Yesterday our football officiating crew got the email all crews want. We are reffing another State Championship in 2 weeks. This will be our 3rd in a row. And quite frankly, it was completely unexpected because its hard enough to get one, let alone two, so I figured no way in hell we are going this year.

But after reading the email, knowing you've done them before so there is no worrying about being good enough, you just soak it all in now. You bask in the glory.

As a player or fan, you should rather want to bask in the glory than stand near the sidelines.

Hopefully, we can all bask in the glory of being a Dolfan. And just as it took us 15 years to get our first final with 4 in the last 7 years, you realize that it was so many regular season games, first round playoff games and semi final games that got you to this point.

So even if we get in and lose its better than not going at all in hopes of maybe, just maybe, going all the way in another year because we got to pick 5 spots sooner in the next draft. I'd rather take one more week today than wait for another year. Plus in another year, my TV may be broken.