Sunday, November 30, 2014

AFC Wild Card Is Gonna Be Hard Work!

I guess the Chargers didn't get the memo.

They aren't supposed to win on the east coast at 1 PM. 

But they did and ruined a pretty good day for the Dolphins.

What we don't need is the Chargers winning the AFC West. Then both the Broncos and Chiefs, who both beat us, would be in the Wild Card hunt.

All the teams ahead of the Dolphins in the loss column of the AFC Wildcard took a spill excluding the Chargers.

If teams do not play each other, the first tie breaker is your conference record.

We actually needed the Ravens to win.  That would have kept Baltimore ahead of us today with only 4 total losses but we could notch another one on them next Sunday in Miami and hold the head to head with them as we both would have 5 losses.

The Browns and Steelers both lost and now are 7-5.

The Steelers have only 3 AFC losses as do we which would make for an interesting tie breaker with us.

The Steelers still have @Bengals, @Falcons, Chiefs and Bengals left to play.  Not an easy row to hoe.

The Browns have 5 AFC losses so we are ahead of them if we run the table.  They still have the Colts, Bengals, @Panthers and @Ravens.  Not an easy row to hoe.

The Chargers still need to lose one more game. They are 8-4 and have only 3 AFC losses. They still have to play Pats, Broncos, @49ers and @Chiefs.  Not an easy row to hoe.

The 7-4 Chiefs host the 8-3 Broncos tonight. If the Chiefs win there will be a 3 way tie at 8-4 in the AFC West. Crazy!

The Chiefs still have to play @Cardinals, Raiders, @Steelers and Chargers.  Not an easy row to hoe.

The Broncos still have to play Bills, @Chargers, @Bengals and Raiders.  Not an easy row to hoe.

Our buddies in the AFC East, the 7-5 Bills with 5 AFC losses, still have to play @Broncos, Packers, @Raiders and @Pats.  The Pats may not need that last game and may, by that point, have the #1 or #2 Seed locked up. The Bills may catch a break there but @Broncos and then hosting the Packers  is not an easy row to hoe.

The 6-6 Texans are staying in the hunt. They have only 3 AFC loses too and still have to play @Jags, @Colts, Ravens and Jags.   That may be the easiest row to hoe out of all the teams still in the hunt.

We still have to play @Jets, Ravens, @Pats, Vikings and Jets.  Those Jets are a pain in our asses. Throw the records out with them. Twice.

The Vikings will be fighting for jobs so they will be no pushover.

The other two games need no explanation.

Lets face it, if we win out we are in pretty good shape looking at everyone's schedules.

I don't see any of those other teams running the table. I think everyone is going to lose at least one more game if not more.

December is going to be very interesting for all the fans, talking heads and teams involved in the AFC race.

And that is exactly what the NFL has worked so hard to produce.

I hope we play well and reap the rewards.

It is there for the taking.

Phins Up!!!

Carl Leone
Dolfan since 12/25/1971
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17 comments

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I don't agree with any of it.

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Agree with everything you said Carl, except about the SD win over Baltimore. I would much rather have San Diego win today considering the rest of their schedule, I see 1 more loss by the Chargers, maybe even 2. They should not win the AFC West

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We need to beat the Ravens no matter what. But getting the Chargers to be tied with us would have been better then us chasing them or anyone else for that matter.

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Not to worry Carl, SD should end up at least tied with us if not worth a worse record...

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Yes, that is correct Nick. Then comes head to head tie breaker. Then conference win tie breaker. Then common game tie breaker. Then if all else fails, strength of schedule tie breaker...

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Huge game tomorrow night against the J-E-T-S, Suck, Suck, Suck!!!

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http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine a fun little game. you pick which teams win and it spits out the results.

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One more scenario I have heard no one mention.

Pats lose next week to San Diego and the Fins run the table. That puts us tied with Pats for first place with us winning the head-to-head tiebreaker.

How about them apples?

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If we when tonight, there will be a 6-way tie for the 6th seed. Believe it or not, we will be the 6th seed with a victory tonight. I won't sit here and break it all down. I'll just say that the top two in that six will be Miami and Pittsburg, and the tie breaker between those is strength of schedule. Guess who wins that by a landslide?

Our best possible outcome is to win out, of course, but it's not likely. However, 4-1 in the final 5 games will give us a very good chance to take the 6th, or even 5th, seed, because I really believe we are about to see the Chiefs collapse. I think they will be 9-7 or 8-8.

We can lose either the Pats game, the Vikings game, or one of the Jets games, but we CAN NOT LOSE to the Ravens. If we lose to the Ravens, we're all but finished. So, we need to absolutely annihilate the Jets tonight to make a statement, then play mistake free against the Ravens.

We don't need Tannehill to play like an elite QB to beat the Ravens, but if he does, they don't stand a chance. If he doesn't, we can still win with good clock management, good defense, and NO TURNOVERS. Basically, any 4-1 scenario that DOESN'T involve losing to the Ravens will most likely get us in.

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I can't help but think of the 3 games we lost by a total of 10 points in the last seconds of the games

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Gonna be real interesting starting tonight.

I have thought about winning the division with Pats having to face the Bills too.

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The Pats have a much tougher schedule from here on out than we do. Remember, they barely beat the Jets last time. They play all three division rivals and the Chargers in SD. How cool would it be if the Dolphins were 8-5 and the Pats were 9-4 when they play each other again?

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@ Joe Sacco:

I have thought about that scenario! Just didn't wanna mention it until we were only 1 game behind but u beat me to it!

@ Caleb Emerson:

If you have been following this blog for at least a month then you would know that I personally have written about those late game collapses and they bug me more than you could know! Just imagine if we would have won at least one if them...

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Play hard and rough for 60 minutes tonight. Lets see how many Jets want to risk a severe injury for a 2-9 record and team that will be starting over next season.

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Just win baby!