Thursday, October 02, 2014

Player Upgrade Value

Now that we are on Bye week I thought it would be interesting to touch on a couple players in free agency.   The last two seasons the Dolphins were in a favorable cap situation so we could go out and use free agency as a tool to try and upgrade the team.   “Upgrade” is a key word people often overlook when acquiring players.  People tend to focus on value relative to everyone else playing the position in the league.   Mike Wallace and Branden Albert are very good examples. I have seen several people state that Mike Wallace is overpaid.  So that means you are comparing him to whom?  People like Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, maybe a Julio Jones? Ok, but there is only one problem; in 2013 I don’t think those players were available.  Coming into 2013 we had to try to upgrade a team that featured Brian Hartline and Devon Bess.  I don’t think anyone is going to argue that Mike Wallace is a massive upgrade over Devon Bess. Similar we paid a large amount of money to acquire Branden Albert.  However, again I don’t think anyone will argue he is massive…wait that word does not describe it well enough, he is an ENORMOUS upgrade over Johnathan Martin.  So yes, while you can say Mike Wallace and Branden Albert are overpaid relative to where they rank against all the players average salary at that position. I would argue that the massive upgrade they provided our team over what we had justifies what the team spent on them. Or in other words I think the value of how much better the player makes your team is more important than the value they have against players on other teams (most of which are not even possible to sign) Let me know who you think had the biggest upgrade value to the team or even who downgraded the team the last couple years.
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Right about every part of it.


I don't worry about over paying for a position of NEED.
If you absolutely have to solve a problem as we had at left tackle and a Pro Bowl player is available AND we can afford that player then sign him.
Are there a cheaper, less talented players who could man that position adequately but not as dominate? Sure there are.
But ask yourself this: Have you ever paid more for something that you were completely satisfied with? And have you ever paid less for something that didn't do what it was supposed to do?
When you spend more then you are only out a little bit. But when you go cheaper and it doesn't work then you are out all it cost.
So Branden Albert was worth it.
Wallace's value has been diminished by the inability to consistently hook up deep with Tannehill. No matter who was running those routes, if the ball isn't thrown well nobody catches it. I believe Wallace has a lot of intrinsic value and potential production that we have all become impatient with waiting for it to transpire. But I have no second thoughts about paying him.
Wheeler and Ellersbee are another story. Those guys have under produced and are not worth the investment.
Sturgis may have saved us money over resigning Carpenter but we may have made the playoffs last year with Carpenter. So tha bothered me.
Now with this new DIRECTV deal in place, the salary cap should be much higher in the coming years and many players will be over paid around the league. Hopefully we get good production out of our signings and then I won't care what they cost us.