Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Miami Dolphins Odds Meter

For some off season fun I am doing a % in 100 chance of a player making the final 53 man roster.  Many things can change this such as performance, injuries, league trouble(ex.banned substances), off the field trouble, and Salary ( high paid players that are not key players don’t last long). I am starting with offense then will do the defense on my next post.  Who are your picks to make it?

I see no chance the team cuts Tannehill or Moore. I think Brock Jensen is really up against it to try to beat Devlin. Hard to come in as a undrafted rookie and beat out a QB with a few years of experience.

Ryan Tannehill – 100%

Matt Moore – 100%

Pat Devlin – 80%

Brock Jensen – 20%

Running Backs:

Moreno and Miller are locks. Thomas is the best remaining starter as of now however this is where it gets interesting. It appears to me the Dolphins are going to carry an extra D-End and an extra Wide Rec.  So the question is if that happens, where are they going to “Rob Peter to pay Paul”. Thigpen is special teamer and can be a traditional 3rd receiving back.  So it is hard to cut a player that actively contributes vs one that is only depth.  Also, keep an eye on Damien Williams. He is an undrafted player. He was kicked off Oklahoma which dropped him out of the draft. The guy is a bigger back that has excellent speed for his size. He was a decent blocker in college as well which is important in Miami’s offense. Basically his skill set is similar to Daniels. If he flashes in camp and preseason, I think the team lets Thomas go and maybe trys to store Williams on the practice squad as a backup whom they can bring to active roster if Moreno or Miller go down.
Knowshon Moreno – 100%

Lamar Miller – 100%

Daniel Thomas – 60%

Mike Gillslee – 40%

Marcus Thigpen – 30%

Damien Williams – 10%

Wide Receiver:

One of the top contributions to Miami’s struggles last year was the injury to Gibson and then in the final the injury to Hartline.  They simply did not have the depth they needed to overcome it.  They have clearly served notice they want a deeper pool of talent at the WR position. This is going to be highly intense position battle. They have guys that are the 6th and 7th WR right now that would be competing for the 3rd and 4th WR spots on other teams.  I think they are going to carry 5 players at the position and try to put one on the practice squad. (Maybe Matt Hazel). Brandon Gibson will have to show he is back to form. There simply is too much talent right now for him to be slower or behind schedule on rehab. The #5 wide receiver competition is going to be nuts.

 Mike Wallace – 100%

Brian Hartline – 100%

Jarvis Landry – 90%

Brandon Gibson – 70%

Reshard Matthews – 40%

Matt Hazel – 40%

Damien Williams – 30%

Armon Binns – 20%

 Tight End:

I am still at loss for Miami’s Plan at the TE position. Clay is a talented hybrid player but that is it right now. They drafted a slow inline tight end in Arthur Lynch and picked up Gator Hoskins after the draft.  Lynch will be competing with Dion Sims for the blocking TE role. I think they need to be able to run some double TE formations that can threaten the pass more and also what a nightmare if Clay gets hurt. I have to think they are going to still look to bring in a J Finley or Dustin Keller yet.  Michael Egnew as the #1 TE if Clay goes down does not make me feel good. I actual think Gator Hoskins can beat out Egnew if there is not another receiving TE added from Free Agency.

Charles Clay – 100%

Dion Sims – 60%

Arthur Lynch – 50%

Gator Hoskins – 20%

Michael Agnew – 20%
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Where's the Oline? Also, theoretically your percentages should add up to the total number of players being kept. For instance, if keeping 5 receivers the total should be 500%. Just my logical opinion. :)


Here is how I see the roster:

QBs: same as last year

RBs: Moreno, Miller, Thomas and Thigpen...Keep the Williams on practice squad while the Gill gets cut

WRs: Hartline, Wallace, Gibson (if healthy), Landry, Mathews with Hazel and Williams on practice squad.

If Gibson is unhealthy then Gibson gets cut and Williams makes the squad as backup WR and RB plus this then gets Thigpen cut as Williams returns kicks

TEs: Clay, Lynch and either Simms or a player to be signed later. Both Agnew and Hoskins get cut.