Monday, December 02, 2013

We need 4 more AFC wins to make the playoffs - that was 1

I wrote a few weeks ago that a 9-7 record with four more AFC wins would be enough to make it to the playoffs.  After our dominant performance against the Jets, we should be fine if we win 3 out of the next 4 games.

The only team who holds the tiebreaker against us at the moment is Baltimore with a head-to-head victory. (remember the missed field goal at the end of that game - so close).

If we were in a 3 way tie with say Baltimore & Tennessee (where Baltimore loses only 1 more AFC Game), The Dolphins would get the nod by virtue of a better Conference Record over both of those teams.  The Phins only have 3 conference losses.   If they win out, they would be in - unless Baltimore wins out (Highly Unlikely!).  Baltimore's remaining schedule is Min, @Det, NE, @Cin.   And, say Baltimore runs the table and wins out.   Cinci's remaining schedule is Ind, @Pit, Min, Bal., which means 1 built in loss.  Two more and the Dolphins would hold the tiebreaker against them should Miami win 3 of 4.  If Cinci only loses 2 games, Miami would still have the tie breaker if they won out.

Even Kansas City is gettable with 3 straight losses.   They have 4 tough games @WSH, @OAK, IND, @SD.  Their confidence is shaken, and at 9-3, they could easily lose 3 of 4 or even 4 of 4, which mean Miami could overtake them as well.

I give Miami a 75% chance of making the playoffs if they can go into cold Pittsburgh next week and win.  I am certain the odds-makers have Pittsburgh a hefty favorite.  But hey, we just beat the "favorite" Jets this week pretty convincingly, and it could have easily been 37-3.  AND, Pittsburgh's defense is not what it used to be.   I really love our chances.

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Pittsburgh is a 3.5 point favorite this week. That is mostly a weather spread, Our receivers wear gloves. I'm not that worried. Our Defense is stout. It will be a very good win. But, it is very doable. I expect Miami to win actually, 27-10.