Monday, December 02, 2013

We Have 3 Issues Moving Forward

Jets Week is behind us and now its December and time for the cream to rise to the top.

As I see it, with four games left, we have 3 issues staring us in the face and if they don't correct these, we will wind up with only having the lowly Jets left on our schedule.

I don't believe we can win out unless these get corrected.

#1 Sturgis' inconsistency
When your offense drives 68 yards and sets you up for a 41 yard field goal off of a turf field with hardly a breeze and you miss it, we got problems.

Sturgis is 4 for 4 up to 29 yards. But from 30-39 and 40-49 he is 16 for 20. He is also 3 for 6 from 50 yards and beyond.

Let's focus on the 30-49 range which is where you need to be well over 90% to keep a job in the NFL. He is 8 for 10 in both 30-39 and 40-49. Currently, Sturgis is at 80%. That means he has missed 1 out of every 5 attempts.

And as we all know, how those 4 misses can come back to haunt you. Now, I am not talking about 54 yarders to tie a game. I am talking about routine 41 yarders to get you on the board and in the lead.

You know, the ones all good kickers drill right down the middle. Sturgis's kicks seem to sneak in just inside the upright.

Despite his ability to drill Kick Offs deep into the endzone, if we want to make the playoffs and actually win one playoff game, we may have to start trying out some kickers.

Pittsburgh's Heinz Field is not an easy place to kick in. The wind coming in from the open end can play havoc with any kicker, however, if Sturgis blows another kick there less than 45 yards, I am sorry, but it is time to cut our losses and get another kicker in for a try out.

We just cannot afford to run this risk any longer.

#2 Cannot Gain A Yard Running The Ball When We Need To
I don't know the exact numbers right now, but we are absolutely pitiful trying to get a stinking yard for either a first down or a touchdown by running the ball.

We are not carrying a pure fullback on our roster which may be the problem. I know about how running the ball is all attitude but sometimes instead of using an H-back in motion, how about putting another guard at fullback and let him plow into the line ahead of the tailback.

I believe we will need to address this issue with the draft unless a tough running S.O.B. becomes available. In the meantime, lets go with a "Fridge" type of formation instead of our styrofoam cooler type of formation we currently use to complete failure.

#3 Tannehill
I know I am striking a nerve here with a lot of Dolfans but I am starting to wonder now about his future.

Does he has the size and arm strength you want in a QB? Absolutely!

Plus he can run like the wind too.

So what's the problem? First of all we are in week 14 about to play our 13th game and he still hasn't hit Wallace or Hartline deep and IN STRIDE once. Not once!

He either over throws them or under throws them. They either have to layout or make a circus catch to any ball thrown beyond 25 yards. And that's if they can even do that.

I cannot believe, for the life of me, that he hasn't dropped one ball in on them 40+ yards down the field that all they had to do was look up and catch it and then run like the wind.

One more issue with Tannehill, and this is more mental than anything, is hitting receivers when it matters most. He has driven us down field enough times especially before the half but he has also missed enough throws like the 2 glaring ones Sunday against the Jets.

Both on 4th downs, money plays. Hartline is open down the sideline and Tannehill under throws him. Clay is open in the endzone and he overthrows Clay. 14 points right there.

Against Baltimore or Buffalo, I forget which one, very late in the game, he had Hartline wide open on the left sideline for the game winner and over threw him.

I am starting to think that he may tighten up with these "Oh my gosh he's open" throws. In other words, he may be a choker.

Oh he is very good on the 8-12 yard slants, come backs, square out, sit downs, etc.

But with the deeper posts, flags and fly patterns he should be showing a lot more consistency.  Well, consistency assumes you are at least doing it once.

He has hung receivers out to dry, ask Gibson. But mostly, just badly missing long targets and money plays.

Hell, Wallace was standing there wide open on his TD and Tannehill almost over threw him.

Now I know this is hard to hear after he just threw for 330 yards and 2 TDs.  But we aren't gonna be playing teams with as bad a secondary as the Jets put out there on Sunday.

Cromartie was hobbled and Milliner just stinks. Ed Reed is well passed his prime.

I don't think we should start Matt Moore over Tannehill this season but if he doesn't start making these throws then we may need to start looking at drafting another QB and let Tannehill play wide receiver.

I like the kid. I do. He is a great face for the franchise. But we do need better production on deep throws and starting this sunday.

Please Ryan, drop ONE in the bucket.

Carl Leone
Dolfan since 12/25/1971
Carldleone@aol.com

34 comments:

  1. I think its the Holder. The ball should be perpendicular to the ground, and on the missed FG's the ball is either leaning towards the holder or the kicker " right or left" . Maybe that was Carpenters problem too.

    [web.ncsu.edu]

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I thought the same thing last game. I think Fields is the holder. They need to get back on the same page.

      Delete
    2. Brandon Fields is the holder. You guys could be right. Not sure about the proper technique of having the ball perfectly upright for a soccer style kicker. I know straight on kicjers needed the ball straight with a slight tilt back. Can one of you guys call your local college special teams coach and ask?
      Sturgis misses both left and right.

      Delete
  2. I will say our short yard play calling has been horrible. Why in the world do they use Agnew at fullback in there sometimes blows my mind, he can't lead block or run at all. Clay is not much better at either from the fullback position. Granted I know we don't have great guards right now. But if you look at all our short yardage plays look at how many times we have run things that just don't work with penetration. If you have a 3rd and one and are going to go for it on fourth just run the QB sneak twice. It is nearly impossible to stop it from getting a yard on two plays I like the idea of the fridge package but no clue who has the ability to do it. Maybe Odrick? What ever you do, don't run anything that goes east and west first and don't be throwing freaking corner passes in the endzone on 4 and less than a yard on the goal?

    I do want to give some props to our coaches on the running game however. They obviously worked with Lamar Miller this week. He went from his worst game to his best. He was running it hard and lowering his shoulder for 1-2 yds when that was all there was.

    Cold reality, if we did happen to make the playoffs, they are going to be in places like Denver, New England, Kansas City. Cinn, Baltimore etc. There are not many teams in the race that are not cold weather games. We have to be able to win in Pittsburg and Buffalo to even have a shot to get there. So I hope the coaches are really working on getting the team ready to execute plays in harsh conditions. I don't feel too great about that prospect without TE's that can both run block and be a rec threat. Dion Sims played at Michigan State cold weather games and is out best blocking TE. I really hope they are working on a lot more plays for him to be in there. If we run our 3WR chuck and duck offense in snow or wind, get ready for a long day. Also we are going to have to move Tannehill more so he can make some runs and open up some more intermediate passes. Just a whole different game when it is 10 degrees and windy.

    Regarding Tannehill yes he is still a work in progress. AsI have mentioned Omar Kelly is trying to make a living ripping on Tannehill. Just keep in mind he only really played a starting QB one year in college. Most of the stud college prospects play 3-4 years as the QB in college. This is Wallace's first year so they are still working on things as well. Tannehill is already better than half the QB's in the league and still has a high ceiling.. I know everyone wants to see Brady, Manning Bree's type stuff. But it is VERY hard to get a top QB in the league and it takes time to develop them(Anyone that has watched the pile of "over the hill" or "not able to climb the hill" crap that has cycled through Miami between Marino and Tannehill should know that!). For the people saying get a another QB, who exactly are you referring to? You mean top prospects like Bridgewater that will be top 10 picks that would require a pile of picks to move up to get? On top of that they also will probably take a couple years before they would performing at a top 15 QB level.For those paying attention Luck And RGIII are not exactly looking unstoppable. It takes time. Next season we are going to need to use our cap space to hopefully keep Grimes in town and also hopefully keep either Starks or Solia. Whatever cap space we have left and our draft picks are going to have to be used to rebuild the O-Line. We literally will need 4 starting caliber players for our Oline even if McKinney and Clabo stuck around. Maybe 5 if Pouncey is in legal trouble over guns. Bottom line is we can't afford to give away draft picks that we need to draft new linemen. I HIGHLY doubt there will be a free agent QB that is even comparable to Tannehill ( I doubt there is one that is even comparable to Matt Moore) and if there is even a "decent" qb that is a free agent option, he is going to cost ALOT of salary cap money when you considering what teams like Jacksonville and the Jets will give up for a decent QB.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Breathe gofins4sb, breathe! I thought you were going to hyperventilate on me and you're my favorite reader!
      All good points....as far as Tannehill, as I said earlier, I like the kid. But he may just be a choker.

      Delete
    2. great analogy Carl. I also am bewildered as to how Tannehill and receivers don't practice the deep ball more. He plain sucks at leading the receiver and he better step up or let's make him a WR and find a new QB. Great stuff.
      JM Dolfan since '70

      Delete
    3. great analogy Carl. I also am bewildered as to how Tannehill and receivers don't practice the deep ball more. He plain sucks at leading the receiver and he better step up or let's make him a WR and find a new QB. Great stuff.
      JM Dolfan since '70

      Delete
    4. great analogy Carl. I also am bewildered as to how Tannehill and receivers don't practice the deep ball more. He plain sucks at leading the receiver and he better step up or let's make him a WR and find a new QB. Great stuff.
      JM Dolfan since '70

      Delete
    5. great analogy Carl. I also am bewildered as to how Tannehill and receivers don't practice the deep ball more. He plain sucks at leading the receiver and he better step up or let's make him a WR and find a new QB. Great stuff.
      JM Dolfan since '70

      Delete
    6. great analogy Carl. I also am bewildered as to how Tannehill and receivers don't practice the deep ball more. He plain sucks at leading the receiver and he better step up or let's make him a WR and find a new QB. Great stuff.
      JM Dolfan since '70

      Delete
    7. They practice it Jim. But after 20 weeks of practice you need to watch soreness and preserve arm strength for the games. But they practice it. Just want to see it in a game already.

      Delete
    8. Thanks for reading JM. I live in Jersey too. Somerset County. How about you.

      Delete
  3. One finally point, NFL players really are lucky. They have amazing ability and the teams and by extension the fans( that is where the money comes from) give them enough money to be set the rest of their lives is they so choose. I expect someone in that situation to bust their ass to be prepared as possible to be successful. As a Dolphins fans I want to thank players like Olivier Veron and Cameron Wake. Just look at them. They are completely ripped and in great shape which leads to them have great seasons. On the other hand Dannell Ellerbee noticeably has fat hanging on him. Come on man! He is not a O-Lineman or D-Tackle where you need to be heavy. He needs to be fast and in great condition. I know he has made some plays with his talent, but I am just saying it is disappointing to see he is not dedicated to be in top condition. I felt same way regarding Dansby and Ronnie Brown in years past. Both of those guys showed up way overweight. I just find that completely unacceptable consider how much they are paid to be in shape.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Excellent point! Maybe someone on South Beach needs to kick sand in Ellerbe's face. Or his girlfriend or boyfriend ( because there is nothing wrong with that ), needs to buy him a gym pass for Christmas.

      Delete
  4. How about a qb sneek every once in awhile...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You know Chris, there are enough times when it looks like Tannehill could either silent count them or quick snap the D for a yard. But do you want your QB on the bottom of piles. There is a risk but sometimes it's worth taking.

      Delete
    2. Excuses continue to be made for Tannehill...he's only played so many games, etc...Like it or not Matt Moore outplayed him in his limited time with Sparano as head coach behind lines that couldn't block and coaches that also couldn't coach...Moore had no problem hitting the deep ball...While we have the coaches we have and the QB, we will be mired in mediocrity in Miami.
      Besides the QB decision this staff has made...Carpenter and Bush are two more decisions that poor analysis by them has made...

      Delete
    3. Carpenter is a loss but I am not sure how well Bush would have done with this line. He certainly would not have taken 2 yard losses and turned them into 8-9 yard loses. Hell, they ran the ball well Sunday. Good observation on Matt Moore, Gary, good observation!

      Delete
    4. Actually Bush turned several 1yd gains into losses last year. I would like to see a running back get in there and compete for some tough yards. Miller seems timid to me and avoids taking on contact for that extra yard. Somebody needs to get him mad

      Delete
    5. You are so right gofins4sb. He ran hard against jets but he needs that snorting get the f--k out of my way attacks.
      Or we could use a full back instead of 3 scat backs.

      Delete
  5. Right now Tannehill is approaching the experience that most QBs coming out of the draft have (minus of course --even ever playing high school) so I still think he has plenty of upside.
    Also, who's to say he would be even worth a roster spot as a WR at this point?
    If we do get mathematically knocked out of the playoffs, wo should bring Moore in and let him play for a few reasons.
    First to not risk a pointless injury to Tannehill if we are moving forward with him.
    Then, To see if Moore plays noticeably better than Tannehill, and to see if the entire offense plays better with him, and to see if he connects way better deep with the same receivers, and to either give possible trade value down the line.

    Would really appreciate a comment on this point of view.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I like the trade bait angle, just to see what Moore would fetch, Steve.

      Delete
    2. Tannehill played QB in high school

      Delete
  6. For our short yardage fullback wowes what about going back to our good buddy
    Lousaka Polite he isn't doing much in Atlanta and I really miss him getting those short yaradage runs EVERY TIME. http://www.nfl.com/player/lousakapolite/2505781/profile

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Polite was money in the bank mattbatt, good as cash!

      Delete
  7. I had another thought...( I'm scared too) our Fearless Moderator Bitchin Dave pointed out on one of his podcasts two years ago that %90 of the great QB's didn't start their first season. Even Marino sat for the frist 6 games. I can't find the episode. Every time I see Tannehill make a rookie mistake I remember that podcast.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I like Tannehill, I do. I am just losing patience with the long ball already. We have played 12 games and not one drop in the bucket. He hasn't made stupid mistakes but he is missing on big plays. If he cannot hit Wallace deep then there goes about 30 million. We would have had to pay someone to run and catch anyway.

      Delete
    2. Don't worry about Dave. He's a good soul. No one will ban you for disagreeing here. We welcome all positions to all topics as long as you don't get ugly mattbatt. Say what you'd like to say.

      Delete
  8. Oh come on! Tannehill is projected to pass for 4150 yards at a 62% completion 83 QB rating, and 22 TDs with 12 INTs. At the beginning of the year - if we would have said these will be the numbers, wouldn't you all just take those stats and be ecstatic?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Absolutely MD. Would take it and run. Just want him to hit ONE deep pass in stride, ONE 4th down money play that scores a TD. Just ONE that's all.
      I like the kid. People say "He has lots of upside". I agree, he does. Though that usually comes with being down. I hope he leads us to the promise land. I really do. I just want him to make some big time throws already. That's all MD. That's all.

      Delete
    2. From what I have seen it is a matter of timing. Tannehill has a cannon for an arm. But he is not seeing guys break open down field in time and is throwing it late. He also has held the ball and taken sacks a lot. He is still learning the speed of the game. I have noticed he is improving. He threw a few out of bounds and ran for a nice run in the jets game vs take a sack. I think he is probably around the 15th best QB in the league and getting better each week. Matt Moore does throw the deep ball with a better feel. However he is much more inconsistent. He can't work the intermediate routes with the same effciancy as Tannehill. Still they are not far apart. I would say Moore is probably the 20th best QB in the league. However he does not have arm, running ability,height, contract, or youth. When Tannehill hits his 4-5th year he will only be in his later 20's and I think will be a top 10 QB. Trading Moore is always tempting. But the reality is if Tannehill gets hurt the season is over without Matt Moore.

      Delete
    3. Excellent point gofins4sb. I wonder how Pat Devlin would do as a #2. Tangl Moore to see what comes down the pike for him. If you can get a good return. Fill an issue on online with a proven player maybe let Moore go.

      Delete
    4. Devlin should know the offense by now pretty well. I would think he is more than capable of handling a game or two. I remember their being a knock on him that he does not have great arm strength. It always seems after a couple games in the NFL, the Bill Belicheats figure out what the limits are and adjust the defense for it. I did think Devlin looked pretty good in the preseason. However, that is quite a bit different than running a 4 WR set and having 3-4 seconds before Mario Williams dislocates your shoulder lol. So it would make me nervous to go into next season without a veteran backup. Moore is a huge luxury because he is in his prime and fully capable of being a starter for the whole season. He is also going to be around all next year so we should not even have to worry about the back-up QB position next year. Finally, he seems to be very good friends with Tannehill and well respected by the team. Just hard to find good team players that could keep the season on course if needed. I always remember Shula had some wiley veteran back-up. Earl Moral, Don Strock, Bernie Kosar, Ron Jawaroski, Steve DeBerg hahah the list goes on. It seems these days with how advanced the offenses are and the expansion to 32 teams it is just so hard to have a couple solid QB's.

      Delete
    5. Agree hole heartedly on Moore. He is a great luxury to have. Don't forget Scott Mitchell. Did a great job in 1993 when Marino went down. And of course the greatest back up QB ever, 1983 Dan Marino.
      Kosar and Morall were wonderful insurance policies.
      And Don Struck was the closer. Sometimes long relief.
      Great observations and thanks for coming back gofins4sb, you may get MVC...Most Valuable Comment or!!!

      Delete