Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Odds Of Making Playoffs After 2 Win Start

Two Games does not an NFL season make unless they are, ofcourse, the AFC Championship or the Super Bowl.  But those are, hopefully, a tale for another day.

I found these stats very interesting.  They were compiled since 1978 and do not include the strike years of 1982 and 1987.  These are based on a full 16 game schedule.

Since 1978,  262 teams have started at 2-0 and 167 of them wound up making the playoffs that year. That's 63.7% of those teams made the post season.  Looks pretty good for us right now.

By contrast, 264 started out 0-2 and only 28 of them or 10.6% made the playoffs that season.

So where does Sunday's game fall on the chart?

Only 157 teams have started out at 3-0 and 119 of them or 75.8% made the playoffs.

So if we win on Sunday, we have a 3 in 4 chance of making the playoffs.

If we, ughum, let me clear my throat, lose...then 335 teams have started out at 2-1 with 175 of those going to the playoffs or 52.2%.  So now we would be basically 50-50.

Big game Sunday with big consequences none the less!

Just so you know, teams that finish:
10-6  83.8% made playoffs
11-5  97.5% made playoffs
12-4 or better  100% made playoffs

Carl Leone
Dolfan sinice 12/25/1971
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