Thursday, August 29, 2013

I can't find 7 Dolphin losses - 10 or 11 wins expected

I read the Miami Herald Palm Beach Post and the Sun Sentinel season wins predictions and frankly.   I believe that, ONLY if we get hit by the injury bug, Miami will will not less than 10 games.  Here is my Week by Week analysis:

  1. @ Cleveland - This will be a slightly tougher game than originally expected.  Weeden has been playing lights out this preseason.  Their offense seems to be relatively balanced.   However, They have not played our Defense, and if Indy can shut them down for 6 points - How hard will it be for our team to hold them to 17 or less - not very hard!   And, our Offense will be fine against their defense.   Yes, they have a couple of decent lineman and corners, but not a great defense overall.   Prediction:  W -  Miami 24 - Cleveland 13
  2. @ Indianapolis - The surprising thing here is that the Indy defense seems better than last year, which makes this game much more difficult.   Luck will get his yards and points.  He is like any really good QB.  Truthfully, this feels like a pickum game.  It is in Indianapolis.   Oh well, I am a homer!  Old man Vinatieri will miss a 48 yard field goal.   Prediction:  W - Miami 23 - Indianapolis 21 
  3. Atlanta - Okay, this is the best team we will play this season.  They are deep and good at every position.   Their defense is stout.  Their offense is explosive.  We would have to play a perfect game just to get close.  We will play hard and still lose by 2 touchdowns.  Prediction:  L - Atlanta 31 - Miami 17   [I hope I'm wrong and we match up well]
  4. @ New Orleans - This is our first Monday night game.  I will be in the stands at this game with my girlfriend, so we better kick ***.    I am very excited.    Frankly, we are better than this team.  They have the better QB (at the moment).  Although their preseason game against Houston was impressive.  That defense is just bad.  It got old and now they don't have enough players to stay with us.  However, their offense will keep them in it.  Prediction:   W - Miami 31 - New Orleans 27
  5. Baltimore - I first thought with all of the losses on this Super Bowl Champion Ravens they would be really bad this year.   Color me impressed.  This is a must win game for us.  However, I think we will lay an egg.  The Ravens always find ways to beat us - except for one missed FG in regulation and completed pass in overtime :) - thank you Camerillo.   We will have turnovers and make stupid mistakes in this one...  mostly because we will be on a false high from going 3-1 to this point, and we will be on a short week.  Prediction: L - Baltimore 27 - Miami 10
  6. Bye Week
  7. Buffalo - I love EJ Manuel.  And, I fully expect him to be the QB on this Sunday.  BUT, they don't have a chance.  We will dominate.  Prediction:  W - Miami 31 - Buffalo 13
  8. @ New England - I believe we will split with the Patriots, so Prediction:  W - Miami 27 - New England 17
  9. Cincinnati - I know they are a good team.  BUT - We always do well against them.  We are their Houston.  Prediction: W - Miami 24 - Cincinnati 17
  10. @ Tampa Bay - This Monday-nighter is a pickum game.   I would normally say we would beat them, but something tells me that Revis 'n Company will be in mid-season form and hurt us.  And, we know their offense can score some.   This will be low scoring.  Prediction:  L - Tampa Bay 13 - Miami 9
  11. San Diego - We could play our second team everything and still win.  And, the Chargers never play well traveling to the East Coast.  Prediction:  W - Miami 41 - San Diego 13
  12. Carolina - I fear by this time of the year the Panthers may be a pretty good football team.  I first had this a a sure win.  Now I see them edging us in squeaker.   Prediction: L  Carolina 17 - Miami 16
  13. @ New York Jets - They Suck!    Prediction:  W - Miami 31 - NYJ 10
  14. @ Pittsburgh - We will be used to the cold by then having whupped the Jets the week before.  Prediction:  W -   Miami 23 - Pittsburgh 16
  15. New England - Prediction:  L - New England 31 - Miami 20
  16. @ Buffalo - Prediction:  W - Miami 17 - Buffalo 13
  17. New York Jests - They Suck!  Prediction:  W - Miami 31 - NYJ 9

Miami will win 10 games.   I can't find 7 losses.   We could beat Carolina and Tampa Bay... then, who knows - a division win?!?   It is very possible - if we stay healthy.   We must stay healthy.  Go Miami Dolphins - you are on the rise.  We all feel it.  We see it everyday when we watch the defense, and I have no doubt the offense will be a force later in the season.
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Patriots x2 - Two "L"s. How can you think we will beat the Patriots while Brady still has a right arm? Are we 28 points better than the end of last season? Are they 28 points worse?

Ravens, Steelers, Bengals, Falcons, Saints, Colts - These are no contest. On paper, we don't belong on the same field. Maybe we pull off a miracle in one of these, but these are all playoff teams with NFL rosters.

Chargers, Bucs, Panthers - We will be underdogs in all of these. Pushing our luck to think we win 2.

Jets x2, Bills x2, Browns - Now we are at our level with the bottom feeders. Browns regularly kick our butts, which is why I call us bottom feeders. Jets and Bills - we split both of these last year, will lost at least one and probably two of the four games with them this year.

That gets us to 6-10, 7-9, which is where our talent level and this franchises' performance the past decade should place us.


Seriously! You are stuck thinking about a roster (3-4 years ago) that couldn't compete with anyone. That team is gone. We have a Playoff caliber defense. Even the Haters know this. Last year, we let 17 catch-able INTs slip through our fingers. That won't happen this year, We only covered 6 of 24 fumbles - that won't happen this year. We also missed 3 game winning FGs last year. That won't happen this year. We are improved on Defense and Offense this year. New England lost Wes Welker and one of their TEs. We will pressure Brady to the tune of 6-7 sacks this year. Also, that last game of the season was for nothing. The first match-up was pretty close, within 7 points.

This roster and team is not a bottom-feeder. Come to the light my friend.

I tell you what. If we win less than 9 games, I will buy you a steak dinner. If we win more than 9 games, you buy me a steak dinner.



"Last year, we let 17 catch-able INTs slip through our fingers. That won't happen this year"

It will. D-backs drop catchable balls. That is why they are D-backs and not WRs

"We only covered 6 of 24 fumbles - that won't happen this year."

Fair enough, those are usually 50/50.

"We also missed 3 game winning FGs last year. That won't happen this year."

I tire of hearing that Dan Carpenter is the reason we weren't 9-7. We could have lost the Rams game with a made FG on the other side. Bengals and Seahawks games were also sheer luck. You can't just pick the ones where it bounced the wrong way. It's football, the ball is shaped funny and will always bounce funny.

"We are improved on Defense and Offense this year. "

It would be hard to be worse - our pass defense was a joke, and our offense was best forgotten. Now, we have a lot of pieces on paper, but so far that hasn't translated to the field. One or two more injuries - and there are always injuries - and we are looking up at 5-11.

"You are stuck thinking about a roster (3-4 years ago) that couldn't compete with anyone. That team is gone. "

Yes, but the replacements haven't shown signs of being much better. Look at how fast the O-Line fell to pieces without John Jerry. JOHN JERRY! Ditto the Tight Ends. And don't ask who steps in at #1 reciever when Wallace inevitably goes out for the season.

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Mad Dolphin is right - this is now Ireland's team and our defense is deep and nasty. It's built to beat the Patriots and stop the run. What does Tom Brady do? He throws short accurate completions (92% of his passes were under 10 yards last year). This team has a nasty pass rush and great DT's to clog the lanes. Our new look linebackers can cover and Grimes may have been (outside Keller) the steal of FA. Out line should be pretty good once Jerry gets acclimated and we finally have some weapons. This is not the crap we've been putting on the field from Wandstash, Parcells and Tony Sporano's high school offense. Dolphins fans should be excited for this year, no contest to the Colts, Steelers, Ravens and Saints... Seriously?


I see. You are a Hater who can't see the massive upgrades in speed this year on both offense and defense, a hater who expects his players to get hurt,

We dominated the Seattle game, they just had a chance late in that game. And, against Seattle - the 435 Yards of offense only netted 24 points. If we would have played better, it would have been between 35-and 45 - and not been that close. We ran all over them - if you remember. Tanny had only 253 yards. The NE game at end was only 28-0, not 40-0. Yes, we were fortunate to win the StL game... it was the only one in which the ball bounced our way.

I'm holding you to the steak dinner! The losing is over... come over to the winners circle.


You nailed it Zaf!!! You are 100% correct!


I like your optimism, but I was at the last game in Indy last year and I couldn't hear myself think. This will be a much harder game than you think, as will the CIN and NO games. I have us at 8-8 or 9-7 and I too may be drinking cool-aid. A lot needs to go right for us to get beyond 8-8, whereas a lot needs to go wrong for those other teams to lose.


LOL - I think you over estimate other teams abilities. There is Atlanta and SF in that category this year. Everyone else is gettable; we just need to play well.

We are much better than everyone thinks. I want you guys to write me back later in the season when we are 8 and 4 with 4 to play. Okay?


If this franchise ever goes 8-4 to start a season again, I will gladly write any and everyone who believed it was possible. Assuming I can still see well enough to write, and hold down my corn mush for long enough to finish the letter.

You are suffering the curse of the fan whose team won the off-season. Wallace is a guy with a $50 million contract, not a one-dimensional sprinter with hands of stone and a groin of glass. Wheeler is an all-pro linebacker, not a guy who looked good for a season if you surrounded him with Raiders. And Tannehill is someone with a ceiling above "OK starter until you find a franchise guy" and not someone who can't hit the deep ball and can't get the throw off before he is buried by a DE and the two OL that he pushed in front of him.

I'm not a hater, I'm a fan who has bled for this franchise for over 40 years and knows what to expect.


"The NE game at end was only 28-0"

Sheesh, even our moral victories get sadder every year.


You have to be optimistic about this team. What part is not improved? QB, WR, OL, DL, LB, Secondary, kicker (Carpenter was released again) the only areas I can't say aren't improved are punter (maybe the best in football) TE - Which is almost a wash without Keller who was a huge upgrade - Sims could be a star and we still might pick a good one up. You can argue running backs but Reggie Bush is a threat receiving out of the backfield, which he did not do enough here. Miller is unproven but has all the skills. You also have to remember we still have a ton of cap space and all these contracts can be dropped if they don't perform. Tannehill is better every week, there is a lot to like about our team.



Tannehill will be a top 15 QB this year, and top 10 next year. He routinely hits the deep ball in practice, so I doubt that your assumption that he tops-out as barely above average is pessimistic at best. Come on! If you think think that the changes at CB and LB are not an upgrade, I must ask you - what are you smoking? Burnett and Dansby got beat so often that I was thinking of buying them a turnstile. Yes, they tackled a bunch of people because our front 4 is all-world, not because they were impressive. Wheeler is the 4th or 5th fastest guy on our team - as a linebacker. He is all pro on any team.

You have seen the teams of old... Isn't this one of the best Defenses we have ever fielded?

Yes, we don't have a Marino, so? Tanny has an arm and gets better with every start. He will be a 4000 yard QB, with 24 TDs and 10 or less INTs.

Pouncey is one of the 4 best Centers in the NFL. Clabo is All Pro. Jerry can play crazy good when he decides to do so. He reminds me of Soliai. He is coming into his own. When he gets to full speed, the right side will be a force. Incognito is actually our weekness and he is solid. And, Martin will get better every game for years.

Miller can score on any carry. He looks a bit like Barry Sanders, lost a yard, lost 2 yards, lost a yard, 34 yard gain. I thought Gray or Gillislee would step up better against the 2nd and 3rd stringers. We might need to pick up a RB from the cuts. We'll see.

Our Starting LBs are outstanding, but the backups are slightly below average - agreed depth weakness.

Yes, we need one of the 3 TEs to step up - yes, BUT Gibson will take up the slack until one (or all) of them steps-up.

Top to bottom, we can play with everyone except SF and Atlanta. We are that sound.


Incognito was a point I think most fans missed because he was a "pro bowler". He is the weakest link on that line, I thought they were going to upgrade this year.



We were number one in Redzone defense. AND, had we made half of those INTs (you know the 17 dropped ones, we would have been in the middle of the pack in pass defense. You only see the bad...