I had insomnia last night. I had two of Stanford's games on my Tivo. So, I flipped through the games and watched Luck play.
Now let me say that I think he is a very good QB, and one who shows a high "football IQ"...he seems to understand the game, and can motivate his team in various ways.
And he probably will be a very good - possibly elite - QB in the NFL. But there are no guarantees. And while he looked good, he also has an amazing running game, appears to have a solid line protecting him, and has some good athletes in the receiving positions. Plus, Stanford happens to play in the PAC-12, which has some good schools - but nothing of the caliber of the NFL.
Meaning, its hard to know how good he really is, and how he would play on a team that's lacking in some of the key areas. Say you put him on the Dolphins with all their shortcomings. I have to imagine he would struggle. Learning the NFL game is tough. Learning it with a team that's been "assembled" by a new coach is doubly tough.
The kid is being hailed as the great savior of any franchise. I have my doubts about that distinction, and wonder if he could live up to the expectation that comes with it.
Sure, Cam Newton stepped right in. But Carolina was a decent team for years under John Fox. And the new guy didn't have to rebuild. He added Cam and a few pieces, and put Cam in a position to succeed. Cam, in a way, was lucky. Luck? Probably not so much. If he were to go to the Colts, he'd be joining an aging team that's on the downhill slope. Maybe he gets lucky and Manning stays around a few more years as they rebuild. Maybe he doesn't, and it would be a 'disaster' kind of like here.
So...don't hang your hopes on a single player. He may be great, but he can't single-handedly bring the Fins back from the brink.