Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Bellicheat

The reality is that Billy boy was playing the odds when he went for the first down. I don't know the exact stat but it's something like 70% in his favor.

The fact that he had a bad play call and poor execution certainly changed the odds but he didn't have a bad thought.

Of course we are happy he failed, lost, and is now taking criticism.
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Dolphins Ranter DeleteReply

OK, I know all the stats people (including TMQ) are saying the Bellicheat was right, but I have to disagree.

Stats are great for determining the probability of success or failure. But stats don't take into account things like field position and clock.

I like an aggressive team and play call. But there is a time and place for it. NE had a 6 points lead at the time. Punting and forcing Indy to score a TD is the better choice. If it was a two or one point lead, then I like the call better.

Given the game situation, he should have punted.