Sunday, September 13, 2009

On Pennington

I still believe he's a liability, and that since he's under a 1-year contract the Dolphins are not doing anything more than trying to win now by playing him this season.
 
And what of Chad Henne?  Will he be a great NFL QB?  The odds are against it, and here's why:
 
The 25 greatest QBs of all time each started at least one game in their rookie year, played in several, and took over the starting role some time during their second year.  Now there are a few exceptions and caveats - like a couple of guys who had military service out of college, Johnny U  who was released by his first team, Favre who sat on the bench in Atlanta, and a few guys who actually started their careers in another league.  And Sonny Jurgensen who had to wait behind Norm Van Brocklin for a few years.
 
But even so, those guys had great first years in the NFL when they made their debuts.
 
....and when we look at current QBs in the league, the same trend emerges with the exception of Philip Rivers, who is the modern day equivalent of Jurgensen.
 
In short: if Henne is not playing now, then he will never be a great NFL QB.  And if the Dolphins don't think he's ready, then I guess they need to be looking for someone to draft next year.
 
Or maybe, just maybe, the guy is Pat White.

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